Hull City 2–0 Rochdale: Result & Stats | League One

Hull City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rochdale

G. Osho 69' (OG)

M. Wilks 24'

3/2/2021

League One · Round 33KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hull City52%

×Draw25%

Rochdale23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.99

Hull City

1.62

Rochdale

0.99

Hull City creates 64% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 72 away

1.39

creates per match

1.38

0.61

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Hull City

1.39

Rochdale

1.38

allows per match

Hull City

0.61

Rochdale

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

77%

Hull City or Rochdale

75%

Draw or Rochdale

48%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

28%

Rochdale wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

80%

Hull City 2+ goals

48%

Hull City 3+ goals

22%

Rochdale 1+ goals

63%

Rochdale 2+ goals

26%

Rochdale 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

69%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.39 + Rochdale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.62

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Hull City defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hull City scores more

52%

level

25%

Rochdale scores more

23%

Hull City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

L. Coyle

Hull City · D

7.9

Match Events

24'

M. Wilks↳ J. Greaves

68'

T. Eaves← G. Whyte

69'

G. OshoOwn goal

72'

75'

77'

82'

82'

J. Scott← K. Lewis-Potter

82'

J. McNulty← A. Newby

86'

Regan Slater

86'

D. Crowley← G. Docherty

88'

M. Done← J. Keohane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullRochdale

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots4

3Corners2

11Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots4

4On Target0

5Off Target2

1Blocked2

4Inside Box3

6Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

491Total Passes422

434Accurate Passes355

88%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1