Rochdale 5–1 Hartlepool: Result & Stats

Rochdale

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Hartlepool

J. Bird 85'

D. Rodney 52', 5' (pen)

L. Ayinde 23'

I. Henderson 19'

N. Featherstone 11'

4/26/2025

League #43 · Round 45Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rochdale46%

×Draw25%

Hartlepool29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchHartlepool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.23

Rochdale

1.61

Hartlepool

1.23

Rochdale creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 26 away

1.50

creates per match

1.15

1.31

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Rochdale

1.50

Hartlepool

1.15

allows per match

Rochdale

1.31

Hartlepool

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Hartlepool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

71%

Rochdale or Hartlepool

75%

Draw or Hartlepool

54%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

24%

Hartlepool wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

80%

Rochdale 2+ goals

48%

Rochdale 3+ goals

22%

Hartlepool 1+ goals

71%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

35%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

61%

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.50 + Hartlepool defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Hartlepool attack 1.15 + Rochdale defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rochdale scores more

46%

level

25%

Hartlepool scores more

29%

Rochdale at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

D. RodneyPenalty

11'

N. Featherstone↳ L. Charman

19'

I. Henderson↳ L. Ayinde

23'

L. Ayinde

45+1'

E. Ebanks-Landell

46'

J. Hunter← L. Stephenson

52'

D. Rodney↳ O. Adebayo-Rowling

55'

S. Folarin← L. Charman

65'

C. Edwards← L. Ayinde

66'

J. Kingdon← T. Allarakhia

68'

K. Mitchell← I. Henderson

71'

A. Campbell← J. Miley

71'

G. Madine← J. Grey

73'

J. Bird← D. Rodney

81'

K. Ferguson← S. Beckwith

85'

K. Foreman← R. Cleary

85'

J. Bird↳ J. Kingdon

Rochdale

Hartlepool

40

4

3

14

21

▼

Stephenso

16

⚽

Featherst

18

▼

Miley

20

Dieseruvw

11

A

▼

Charman

12

▼

Grey

19

▼

Cleary

1

Barrett

6

Ebanks-La

14

A

2

18

8

33

▼

Beckwith

40

⚽

▼

Henderson

10

⚽2

▼

Rodney

7

▼

Allarakhi

15

⚽A

▼

Ayinde

Manager: J. McNulty

65'▲C. Edwards←▼L. Ayinde

66'▲J. Kingdon←▼T. Allarakhia

68'▲K. Mitchell←▼I. Henderson

73'▲J. Bird←▼D. Rodney

81'▲K. Ferguson←▼S. Beckwith

Rochdale substitutes

24Edwards28Kingdon9Mitchell27Bird16Ferguson3Armstrong11Adu-Poku

Manager: A. Limbrick

46'▲J. Hunter←▼L. Stephenson

55'▲S. Folarin←▼L. Charman

71'▲A. Campbell←▼J. Miley

71'▲G. Madine←▼J. Grey

85'▲K. Foreman←▼R. Cleary

Hartlepool substitutes

7Hunter27Folarin10Campbell9Madine34Foreman28Ombang22Darcy

Match Recap: Rochdale vs Hartlepool

Rochdale beat Hartlepool 5-1 in League #43 on April 26, 2025.

Goals: D. Rodney (5' pen, 52'), N. Featherstone (11'), I. Henderson (19'), L. Ayinde (23'), J. Bird (85').

The match was played at Crown Oil Arena in Rochdale, Greater Manchester.

Rochdale vs Hartlepool — League #43 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rochdale vs Hartlepool