Hartlepool 0–0 Rochdale: Result & Stats

Hartlepool

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rochdale

4/6/2026

League #43 · Round 43Victoria Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hartlepool34%

×Draw24%

Rochdale41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HartlepoolExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.56

Hartlepool

1.40

Rochdale

1.56

Rochdale creates 11% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 17 away

1.45

creates per match

1.76

1.36

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Hartlepool

1.45

Rochdale

1.76

allows per match

Hartlepool

1.36

Rochdale

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw

59%

Hartlepool or Rochdale

76%

Draw or Rochdale

66%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+

16%

Rochdale wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals

75%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

41%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

17%

Rochdale 1+ goals

79%

Rochdale 2+ goals

46%

Rochdale 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

45%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.45 + Rochdale defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Rochdale attack 1.76 + Hartlepool defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hartlepool scores more

34%

level

24%

Rochdale scores more

41%

Rochdale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

H. Gilmour

62'

T. Adebayo-Rowling← T. Allarakhia

62'

C. Pettit← H. Gilmour

62'

I. Henderson← C. McBride

71'

L. Hannant← D. Moss

71'

T. Smith← D. Rodney

79'

J. Smith-Sway← J. Miley

79'

C. Caton← A. Campbell

83'

85'

87'

90'

Hartlepool

Rochdale

1

2

6

25

21

▼

McBride

4

East

8

▼

Gilmour

7

▼

Allarakhi

22

▼

Moss

10

▼

9

23

2

15

5

3

10

▼

Campbell

14

Sheron

18

▼

Miley

37

Sinclair

28

Daly

19

▼

Reid

79'▲J. Smith-Sway←▼J. Miley

79'▲C. Caton←▼A. Campbell

83'▲V. Oliver←▼A. Reid

Hartlepool substitutes

40Smith4Parkes8Ferguson24Smith-Sway27Oliver35Caton38Walker

Manager: Jim McNulty

62'▲T. Adebayo-Rowling←▼T. Allarakhia

62'▲C. Pettit←▼H. Gilmour

62'▲I. Henderson←▼C. McBride

71'▲L. Hannant←▼D. Moss

71'▲T. Smith←▼D. Rodney

Rochdale substitutes

12Hannant14Adebayo-Rowling16Pettit38Smith36Francis35Baptiste40Henderson

League #43: Hartlepool 0–0 Rochdale

Hartlepool and Rochdale drew 0-0 in League #43 on April 6, 2026.

The match was played at Victoria Park in Hartlepool.

Hartlepool vs Rochdale — League #43 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #43: Hartlepool 0–0 Rochdale