Rochdale 2–0 Grimsby: Result & Stats

Rochdale

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Grimsby

D. Rodney 90'

E. Dieseruvwe 23'

7/19/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rochdale46%

×Draw23%

Grimsby32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchGrimsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.50

Rochdale

1.84

Grimsby

1.50

Rochdale creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

2.80

creates per match

1.00

2.00

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Rochdale

2.80

Grimsby

1.00

allows per match

Rochdale

2.00

Grimsby

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Grimsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

68%

Rochdale or Grimsby

77%

Draw or Grimsby

54%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

25%

Grimsby wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

84%

Rochdale 2+ goals

55%

Rochdale 3+ goals

28%

Grimsby 1+ goals

78%

Grimsby 2+ goals

44%

Grimsby 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

59%

Grimsby (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 2.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 2.80 + Grimsby defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.84

Grimsby attack 1.00 + Rochdale defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rochdale scores more

46%

level

23%

Grimsby scores more

32%

Rochdale at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

E. Dieseruvwe

38'

T. Warren

61'

90'

D. Rodney

Rochdale

Grimsby

1

21

5

17

16

20

4

7

11

10

22

1

14

2

26

33

29

4

8

18

20

⚽

Dieseruvw

Manager: Jimmy McNulty

Manager: David John Artell

Friendlies Clubs: Rochdale 2–0 Grimsby

Rochdale beat Grimsby 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 19, 2025.

Goals: E. Dieseruvwe (23'), D. Rodney (90').

Rochdale vs Grimsby — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Rochdale 2–0 Grimsby