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Rochdale vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Grimsby
Grimsby
L. Waterfall 90+1'
8/13/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 3Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale40%
×Draw26%
Grimsby33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.38
Grimsby
1.23

Rochdale creates 12% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 138 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.38
Grimsby
1.15

allows per match

Rochdale
1.32
Grimsby
1.38

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
67%
Rochdale or Grimsby
74%
Draw or Grimsby
60%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
19%
Grimsby wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
75%
Rochdale 2+ goals
40%
Rochdale 3+ goals
16%
Grimsby 1+ goals
71%
Grimsby 2+ goals
35%
Grimsby 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
55%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Grimsby defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Grimsby attack 1.15 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rochdale scores more
40%
level
26%
Grimsby scores more
33%

Rochdale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
L. WaterfallGrimsbyGrimsby · D
7.9

Match Events

29'
Harry Clifton
37'
Ethan Ebanks-Landell
45+3'
Bryn Morris
46'
Femi Seriki
49'
Benjamin Nelson
51'
S. Graham← B. Nelson
60'
Rayhaan Tulloch
60'
T. Sinclair← R. Tulloch
75'
B. Kiernan← S. Wearne
75'
D. Amos← K. Green
87'
A. Pepple← H. Clifton
90+8'
Anthony Driscoll-Glennon
90+3'
S. Pearson← R. Taylor
90+1'
L. Waterfall↳ A. Driscoll-Glennon

Possession

56%Rochdale

Shots

17Rochdale

Pass accuracy

53%Rochdale

Statistics

RochdaleGrimsby
Overview
56%Possession44%
17Total Shots14
8Corners5
12Fouls17
Shots
17Total Shots14
3On Target4
10Off Target7
4Blocked3
13Inside Box7
4Outside Box7
Passing
56%Possession44%
376Total Passes284
296Accurate Passes198
79%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls17
4Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Rochdale vs Grimsby

Grimsby beat Rochdale 1-0 in League Two on August 13, 2022.

Goals: L. Waterfall (90+1').

Rochdale controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Crown Oil Arena in Rochdale, Greater Manchester.