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Rochdale vs Eastleigh — League #43 2026

Rochdale
Rochdale
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Eastleigh
Eastleigh
4/12/2025League #43League #43 · Round 42Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rochdale63%
×Draw22%
Eastleigh15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.85
Eastleigh
0.75

Rochdale creates 147% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.86
Eastleigh
0.50

allows per match

Rochdale
1.00
Eastleigh
1.83

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Eastleigh+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Eastleigh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
85%
Rochdale or Eastleigh
78%
Draw or Eastleigh
37%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
38%
Eastleigh wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
84%
Rochdale 2+ goals
55%
Rochdale 3+ goals
28%
Eastleigh 1+ goals
53%
Eastleigh 2+ goals
17%
Eastleigh 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
81%
Eastleigh (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Eastleigh away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.86 + Eastleigh defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.85

Eastleigh attack 0.50 + Rochdale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Rochdale scores more
63%
level
22%
Eastleigh scores more
15%

Rochdale at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rochdale vs Eastleigh

Rochdale beat Eastleigh 4-0 in League #43 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Crown Oil Arena in Rochdale, Greater Manchester.