Eastleigh 1–4 Rochdale: Result & Stats | League #43

Eastleigh

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Rochdale

3/16/2024

League #43 · Round 40Silverlake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Eastleigh20%

×Draw19%

Rochdale61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EastleighExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

2.42

Eastleigh

1.31

Rochdale

2.42

Rochdale creates 85% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

2.00

2.83

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Eastleigh

1.33

Rochdale

2.00

allows per match

Eastleigh

2.83

Rochdale

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eastleigh+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastleigh ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Eastleigh or draw

39%

Eastleigh or Rochdale

81%

Draw or Rochdale

80%

Winning margin

Eastleigh wins by 2+

8%

Rochdale wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Eastleigh 1+ goals

73%

Eastleigh 2+ goals

38%

Eastleigh 3+ goals

14%

Rochdale 1+ goals

91%

Rochdale 2+ goals

69%

Rochdale 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Eastleigh (draw refunded)

24%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastleigh at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Rochdale away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastleigh attack 1.33 + Rochdale defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Rochdale attack 2.00 + Eastleigh defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Eastleigh scores more

20%

level

19%

Rochdale scores more

61%

Rochdale at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff