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Rochdale vs Crawley Town — League Two 2025

Rochdale
Rochdale
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
K. Appiah 14'
10/9/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 11Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rochdale51%
×Draw27%
Crawley Town22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.46
Crawley Town
0.85

Rochdale creates 72% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 31 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.20
Crawley Town
0.90

allows per match

Rochdale
0.80
Crawley Town
1.71

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
78%
Rochdale or Crawley Town
73%
Draw or Crawley Town
49%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
26%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
77%
Rochdale 2+ goals
43%
Rochdale 3+ goals
18%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
57%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
21%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
70%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.20 + Crawley Town defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Crawley Town attack 0.90 + Rochdale defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rochdale scores more
51%
level
27%
Crawley Town scores more
22%

Rochdale at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
S. GrahamRochdaleRochdale · D
7.5

Match Events

14'
K. Appiah↳ N. Tsaroulla
60'
Amrit Bansal-McNulty
60'
M. Marshall← A. Bansal-McNulty
63'
A. Newby← C. Grant
63'
D. Cashman← A. Odoh
72'
M. Done← A. White
81'
S. Ashford← K. Appiah
85'
Tony Craig
90+4'
Danny Cashman

Possession

51%Rochdale

Shots

12Rochdale

Pass accuracy

50%Rochdale

Statistics

RochdaleCrawley
Overview
51%Possession49%
12Total Shots13
9Corners4
7Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots13
3On Target2
6Off Target5
3Blocked6
7Inside Box9
5Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
431Total Passes419
298Accurate Passes293
69%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Rochdale vs Crawley Town

Crawley Town beat Rochdale 1-0 in League Two on October 9, 2021.

Goals: K. Appiah (14').

Rochdale controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Crown Oil Arena in Rochdale, Greater Manchester.