Crawley Town 1–0 Rochdale: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rochdale

A. Nadesan 18'

3/26/2022

League Two · Round 39The People's Pension Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Crawley Town36%

×Draw28%

Rochdale36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

Crawley Town

1.21

Rochdale

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 6 away

1.26

creates per match

1.17

1.26

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.26

Rochdale

1.17

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.26

Rochdale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

64%

Crawley Town or Rochdale

72%

Draw or Rochdale

64%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

15%

Rochdale wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

70%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

34%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

12%

Rochdale 1+ goals

70%

Rochdale 2+ goals

34%

Rochdale 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

50%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.26 + Rochdale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Rochdale attack 1.17 + Crawley Town defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Crawley Town scores more

36%

level

28%

Rochdale scores more

36%

Crawley Town at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Tilley

Crawley Town · M

8.3

Match Events

18'

A. Nadesan

59'

L. Kelly← G. Broadbent

60'

A. Davies← W. Ferry

61'

I. Hutchinson← A. Nadesan

65'

D. Cashman← A. Newby

76'

J. Andrews← M. Done

85'

Archie Davies

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyRochdale

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots14

5Corners5

11Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots14

5On Target3

7Off Target7

1Blocked4

9Inside Box8

4Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

362Total Passes447

226Accurate Passes311

62%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1