Rochdale 1–1 Colchester: Result & Stats

Rochdale

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Colchester

J. Keohane 61'

M. Taylor 40' (OG)

8/27/2021

League Two · Round 5Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale42%

×Draw27%

Colchester32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.14

Rochdale

1.35

Colchester

1.14

Rochdale creates 18% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 159 away

1.38

creates per match

0.96

1.32

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Rochdale

1.38

Colchester

0.96

allows per match

Rochdale

1.32

Colchester

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

68%

Rochdale or Colchester

73%

Draw or Colchester

58%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

19%

Colchester wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

74%

Rochdale 2+ goals

39%

Rochdale 3+ goals

15%

Colchester 1+ goals

68%

Colchester 2+ goals

32%

Colchester 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

57%

Colchester (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Colchester away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Colchester defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Colchester attack 0.96 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rochdale scores more

42%

level

27%

Colchester scores more

32%

Rochdale at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Keohane

Rochdale · M

7.9

Match Events

40'

M. TaylorOwn goal

45'

61'

64'

65'

69'

L. Hannant← S. Jasper

76'

C. Grant← A. Newby

87'

Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu

89'

G. Kennedy← C. Skuse

90+2'

C. Coxe← N. Chilvers

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RochdaleColchester

Overview

60%Possession40%

16Total Shots12

5Corners7

3Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots12

2On Target1

9Off Target6

5Blocked5

13Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

501Total Passes331

397Accurate Passes237

79%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

3Fouls8

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4