Colchester 0–1 Rochdale: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rochdale

D. Rodney 23' (pen)

9/24/2022

League Two · Round 11JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Colchester44%

×Draw28%

Rochdale28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.02

Colchester

1.34

Rochdale

1.02

Colchester creates 31% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 56 away

1.32

creates per match

0.95

1.10

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Colchester

1.32

Rochdale

0.95

allows per match

Colchester

1.10

Rochdale

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

72%

Colchester or Rochdale

72%

Draw or Rochdale

56%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

20%

Rochdale wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

74%

Colchester 2+ goals

39%

Colchester 3+ goals

15%

Rochdale 1+ goals

64%

Rochdale 2+ goals

27%

Rochdale 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

61%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 161 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.34

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Colchester scores more

44%

level

28%

Rochdale scores more

28%

Colchester at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

R. O'Donnell

Rochdale · G

7.6

Match Events

22'

Kieran O'Hara

23'

D. RodneyPenalty

37'

James Ball

46'

A. Kazeem← R. Clampin

51'

Tom Dallison

53'

K. Appiah← N. Chilvers

64'

A. Odoh← D. Rodney

73'

F. Nouble← B. Lubala

73'

A. Newby← M. Longstaff

82'

I. Henderson← T. Sinclair

82'

C. Malley← J. Ball

83'

L. Hannant← D. Chesters

87'

Abraham Odoh

90+5'

Femi Seriki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterRochdale

Overview

65%Possession35%

7Total Shots10

8Corners4

12Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots10

1On Target6

3Off Target1

3Blocked3

4Inside Box4

3Outside Box6

Passing

65%Possession35%

519Total Passes273

420Accurate Passes193

81%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2