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Rochdale vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
CANC
15:00
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
3/21/2020League OneLeague One · Round 39Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Rochdale41%
×Draw25%
Burton Albion34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.46
Burton Albion
1.30

Rochdale creates 12% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 176 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.33
Burton Albion
1.06

allows per match

Rochdale
1.54
Burton Albion
1.59

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
66%
Rochdale or Burton Albion
75%
Draw or Burton Albion
59%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
20%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
77%
Rochdale 2+ goals
43%
Rochdale 3+ goals
18%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
73%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
37%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
55%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 176 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.33 + Burton Albion defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Burton Albion attack 1.06 + Rochdale defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rochdale scores more
41%
level
25%
Burton Albion scores more
34%

Rochdale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rochdale host Burton Albion

March 21, 2020: Rochdale take on Burton Albion in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rochdale host Burton Albion at Crown Oil Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.