Burton Albion 3–1 Rochdale: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Rochdale

L. Boyce 82'

L. Akins 18' (pen)

R. Edwards 11'

C. Camps 2'

12/21/2019

League One · Round 22Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Burton Albion43%

×Draw25%

Rochdale33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.34

Burton Albion

1.57

Rochdale

1.34

Burton Albion creates 17% more chances

Season form · 177 home / 72 away

1.29

creates per match

1.38

1.30

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.29

Rochdale

1.38

allows per match

Burton Albion

1.30

Rochdale

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

67%

Burton Albion or Rochdale

75%

Draw or Rochdale

57%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

21%

Rochdale wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

79%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

46%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

21%

Rochdale 1+ goals

74%

Rochdale 2+ goals

39%

Rochdale 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

57%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.30 · 177 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.29 + Rochdale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.57

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Burton Albion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Burton Albion scores more

43%

level

25%

Rochdale scores more

33%

Burton Albion at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

L. Boyce

Burton Albion · F

8.3

Match Events

2'

C. Camps↳ R. Pyke

11'

R. Edwards↳ L. Boyce

18'

L. AkinsPenalty

32'

S. Dooley← O. Rathbone

55'

A. Wilbraham← J. Ryan

61'

K. Baah← R. Pyke

69'

J. Sbarra← O. Šarkić

82'

L. Boyce↳ S. Fraser

86'

R. Hutchinson← S. Fraser

90+2'

B. Hart← R. Edwards

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurtonRochdale

Overview

45%Possession55%

22Total Shots13

8Corners3

10Fouls10

Shots

22Total Shots13

7On Target2

8Off Target8

7Blocked3

16Inside Box7

6Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

396Total Passes499

315Accurate Passes400

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Offsides2