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Roces vs Navarro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Roces
Roces
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Navarro
Navarro
12/19/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Campo de Fútbol Covadonga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Roces34%
×Draw26%
Navarro40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roces
1.24
Navarro
1.38

Navarro creates 11% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 63 away

creates per match

Roces
0.86
Navarro
0.89

allows per match

Roces
1.86
Navarro
1.63

finishing

Roces+0.00on par
Navarro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roces ↓

Navarro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Roces or draw
60%
Roces or Navarro
74%
Draw or Navarro
66%

Winning margin

Roces wins by 2+
14%
Navarro wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Roces 1+ goals
71%
Roces 2+ goals
35%
Roces 3+ goals
13%
Navarro 1+ goals
75%
Navarro 2+ goals
40%
Navarro 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Roces (draw refunded)
46%
Navarro (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roces at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Navarro away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.63 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roces attack 0.86 + Navarro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.24

Navarro attack 0.89 + Roces defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Roces scores more
34%
level
26%
Navarro scores more
40%

Navarro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Navarro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roces vs Navarro

Roces and Navarro drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 19, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Covadonga in Gijón.