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Navarro vs Roces — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Navarro
Navarro
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Roces
Roces
4/29/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 38Estadio Tabiella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Navarro51%
×Draw26%
Roces22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navarro
1.50
Roces
0.89

Navarro creates 69% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 36 away

creates per match

Navarro
1.05
Roces
0.69

allows per match

Navarro
1.09
Roces
1.94

finishing

Navarro+0.00on par
Roces+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navarro ↓

Roces →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Navarro or draw
78%
Navarro or Roces
74%
Draw or Roces
49%

Winning margin

Navarro wins by 2+
26%
Roces wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Navarro 1+ goals
78%
Navarro 2+ goals
44%
Navarro 3+ goals
19%
Roces 1+ goals
59%
Roces 2+ goals
22%
Roces 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Navarro (draw refunded)
70%
Roces (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navarro at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Roces away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navarro attack 1.05 + Roces defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.50

Roces attack 0.69 + Navarro defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Navarro scores more
51%
level
26%
Roces scores more
22%

Navarro at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Navarro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Navarro 1–2 Roces

Roces beat Navarro 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 29, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Tabiella in Avilés.