Roces 1–1 Lenense: Result & Stats

Roces

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lenense

Antonio Ferrera 90'

Lucas Rodríguez 53' (pen)

1/25/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Campo de Fútbol Covadonga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Roces36%

×Draw26%

Lenense37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RocesExpected goals in this matchLenense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.31

Roces

1.28

Lenense

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 96 away

0.86

creates per match

0.76

1.86

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Roces

0.86

Lenense

0.76

allows per match

Roces

1.86

Lenense

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roces+0.00on par

Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roces ↓

Lenense →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Roces or draw

63%

Roces or Lenense

74%

Draw or Lenense

64%

Winning margin

Roces wins by 2+

16%

Lenense wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Roces 1+ goals

72%

Roces 2+ goals

37%

Roces 3+ goals

14%

Lenense 1+ goals

73%

Lenense 2+ goals

38%

Lenense 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Roces (draw refunded)

49%

Lenense (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Roces at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Roces attack 0.86 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.28

Lenense attack 0.76 + Roces defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Roces scores more

36%

level

26%

Lenense scores more

37%

Lenense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

C. Figar

25'

Denzel← Pelayo Paino

41'

Juan Laine← Albert Montalbo

53'

Lucas RodríguezPenalty

59'

Christian← Mauro Suárez

59'

Diego Menéndez← Alex Julián

70'

Adrián Acerete← Diego Otero

70'

Antonio Ferrera← Dani Rodriguez

83'

Pablo Coutado← Dani Pérez

83'

Alejandro Abril← Monasterio

90+6'

P. Coutado

90'

Antonio Ferrera

Roces

Lenense

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Efrén Díaz

59'▲Christian←▼Mauro Suárez

59'▲Diego Menéndez←▼Alex Julián

70'▲Adrián Acerete←▼Diego Otero

70'▲Antonio Ferrera←▼Dani Rodriguez

Roces substitutes

ChristianMenéndezAcereteFerrera

Manager: Manolo Simón

25'▲Denzel←▼Pelayo Paino

41'▲Juan Laine←▼Albert Montalbo

83'▲Pablo Coutado←▼Dani Pérez

83'▲Alejandro Abril←▼Monasterio

Lenense substitutes

DenzelLaineCoutadoAbril

Roces 1 – 1 Lenense

Roces and Lenense drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 25, 2025.

Goals: Lucas Rodríguez (53' pen), Antonio Ferrera (90').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Covadonga in Gijón.

Roces vs Lenense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Roces 1 – 1 Lenense