Lenense 1–0 Roces: Result & Stats

Lenense

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Roces

R. Palermo 66'

1/19/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Estadio ALTOSDEMONTECERRAO.COM - El Sotón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Lenense51%

×Draw25%

Roces24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LenenseExpected goals in this matchRoces

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.00

Lenense

1.60

Roces

1.00

Lenense creates 60% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 36 away

1.27

creates per match

0.69

1.32

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Lenense

1.27

Roces

0.69

allows per match

Lenense

1.32

Roces

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lenense+0.00on par

Roces+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lenense ↓

Roces →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lenense or draw

76%

Lenense or Roces

75%

Draw or Roces

49%

Winning margin

Lenense wins by 2+

27%

Roces wins by 2+

Team goals

Lenense 1+ goals

80%

Lenense 2+ goals

47%

Lenense 3+ goals

22%

Roces 1+ goals

63%

Roces 2+ goals

26%

Roces 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lenense (draw refunded)

68%

Roces (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lenense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.32 · 98 matches

Roces away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lenense attack 1.27 + Roces defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.60

Roces attack 0.69 + Lenense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lenense scores more

51%

level

25%

Roces scores more

24%

Lenense at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

Guille Cueto← Jorge Areces

66'

R. Palermo

67'

L. Manduci← Alex Muñiz

69'

Alvaro Sánchez← Kodiou Sidibé

69'

Sergio Ismael← Jorge Fidalgo

85'

Jairo Fernández← R. Alvarez

85'

Gonzalo Trovato← Álvaro Ferreira

90'

Pablo Martínez← Pablo Sánchez

Lenense

Roces

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Alfonso Arias

69'▲Alvaro Sánchez←▼Kodiou Sidibé

69'▲Sergio Ismael←▼Jorge Fidalgo

85'▲Jairo Fernández←▼R. Alvarez

90'▲Pablo Martínez←▼Pablo Sánchez

Lenense substitutes

SánchezIsmaelFernándezMartínez

Manager: Sergio Rodriguez

62'▲Guille Cueto←▼Jorge Areces

67'▲L. Manduci←▼Alex Muñiz

85'▲Gonzalo Trovato←▼Álvaro Ferreira

Roces substitutes

CuetoManduciTrovato

Match Recap: Lenense vs Roces

Lenense beat Roces 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 19, 2022.

Goals: R. Palermo (66').

The match was played at Estadio ALTOSDEMONTECERRAO.COM - El Sotón in Pola de Lena.

Lenense vs Roces — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lenense vs Roces