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Robin Hood vs Bintang Lair — Eerste Divisie 2019

Robin Hood
Robin Hood
FT
15 – 0
Bintang Lair
Bintang Lair
7/31/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 19Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Robin Hood79%
×Draw12%
Bintang Lair8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Robin Hood
3.27
Bintang Lair
1.02

Robin Hood creates 221% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 16 away

creates per match

Robin Hood
2.92
Bintang Lair
1.31

allows per match

Robin Hood
0.74
Bintang Lair
3.63

finishing

Robin Hood+0.00on par
Bintang Lair+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Robin Hood ↓

Bintang Lair →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Robin Hood or draw
92%
Robin Hood or Bintang Lair
88%
Draw or Bintang Lair
21%

Winning margin

Robin Hood wins by 2+
61%
Bintang Lair wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Robin Hood 1+ goals
96%
Robin Hood 2+ goals
83%
Robin Hood 3+ goals
62%
Bintang Lair 1+ goals
64%
Bintang Lair 2+ goals
27%
Bintang Lair 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Robin Hood (draw refunded)
90%
Bintang Lair (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Robin Hood at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.74 · 61 matches

Bintang Lair away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Robin Hood attack 2.92 + Bintang Lair defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 3.27

Bintang Lair attack 1.31 + Robin Hood defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Robin Hood scores more
79%
level
12%
Bintang Lair scores more
8%

Robin Hood at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Robin Hood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Robin Hood 15–0 Bintang Lair

Robin Hood beat Bintang Lair 15-0 in Eerste Divisie on July 31, 2022.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.