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Bintang Lair vs Robin Hood — Eerste Divisie 2019

Bintang Lair
Bintang Lair
CANC
23:00
Robin Hood
Robin Hood
7/30/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 26Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bintang Lair10%
×Draw13%
Robin Hood77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bintang Lair
1.23
Robin Hood
3.37

Robin Hood creates 174% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 61 away

creates per match

Bintang Lair
1.56
Robin Hood
3.05

allows per match

Bintang Lair
3.69
Robin Hood
0.90

finishing

Bintang Lair+0.00on par
Robin Hood+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bintang Lair ↓

Robin Hood →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Bintang Lair or draw
23%
Bintang Lair or Robin Hood
87%
Draw or Robin Hood
90%

Winning margin

Bintang Lair wins by 2+
4%
Robin Hood wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

Bintang Lair 1+ goals
71%
Bintang Lair 2+ goals
35%
Bintang Lair 3+ goals
13%
Robin Hood 1+ goals
96%
Robin Hood 2+ goals
84%
Robin Hood 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Bintang Lair (draw refunded)
12%
Robin Hood (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bintang Lair at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.69 · 16 matches

Robin Hood away — creates 3.05, concedes 0.90 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bintang Lair attack 1.56 + Robin Hood defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.23

Robin Hood attack 3.05 + Bintang Lair defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 3.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Bintang Lair scores more
10%
level
13%
Robin Hood scores more
77%

Robin Hood at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Robin Hood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bintang Lair host Robin Hood

July 30, 2023: Bintang Lair take on Robin Hood in Eerste Divisie. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bintang Lair host Robin Hood at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.