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Roasso Kumamoto vs Mito Hollyhock — J2 League 2018

Roasso Kumamoto
Roasso Kumamoto
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mito Hollyhock
Mito Hollyhock
8/6/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 29Egao Kenko Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Roasso Kumamoto35%
×Draw27%
Mito Hollyhock39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roasso Kumamoto
1.23
Mito Hollyhock
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 168 away

creates per match

Roasso Kumamoto
1.17
Mito Hollyhock
1.18

allows per match

Roasso Kumamoto
1.44
Mito Hollyhock
1.30

finishing

Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par
Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roasso Kumamoto ↓

Mito Hollyhock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Roasso Kumamoto or draw
61%
Roasso Kumamoto or Mito Hollyhock
73%
Draw or Mito Hollyhock
65%

Winning margin

Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+
15%
Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals
71%
Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals
35%
Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals
13%
Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals
73%
Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals
38%
Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)
47%
Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roasso Kumamoto at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

Mito Hollyhock away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.30 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.17 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.18 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Roasso Kumamoto scores more
35%
level
27%
Mito Hollyhock scores more
39%

Mito Hollyhock at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mito Hollyhock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roasso Kumamoto vs Mito Hollyhock

Roasso Kumamoto and Mito Hollyhock drew 0-0 in J2 League on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Egao Kenko Stadium in Kumamoto.