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Mito Hollyhock vs Roasso Kumamoto — J2 League 2018

Mito Hollyhock
Mito Hollyhock
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Roasso Kumamoto
Roasso Kumamoto
5/17/2025J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 16Best Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Mito Hollyhock41%
×Draw26%
Roasso Kumamoto33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mito Hollyhock
1.41
Roasso Kumamoto
1.23

Mito Hollyhock creates 15% more chances

Season form · 166 home / 108 away

creates per match

Mito Hollyhock
1.34
Roasso Kumamoto
1.32

allows per match

Mito Hollyhock
1.14
Roasso Kumamoto
1.48

finishing

Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par
Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mito Hollyhock ↓

Roasso Kumamoto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mito Hollyhock or draw
67%
Mito Hollyhock or Roasso Kumamoto
74%
Draw or Roasso Kumamoto
59%

Winning margin

Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+
19%
Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals
76%
Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals
41%
Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals
17%
Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals
71%
Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals
35%
Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)
56%
Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mito Hollyhock at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.14 · 166 matches

Roasso Kumamoto away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.34 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.41

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.32 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mito Hollyhock scores more
41%
level
26%
Roasso Kumamoto scores more
33%

Mito Hollyhock at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mito Hollyhock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Mito Hollyhock 2–1 Roasso Kumamoto

Mito Hollyhock beat Roasso Kumamoto 2-1 in J2 League on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Best Denki Stadium in Mito.