Roasso Kumamoto 0–0 Machida Zelvia: Result & Stats

Roasso Kumamoto

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Machida Zelvia

9/14/2022

J2 League · Round 36Egao Kenko Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Roasso Kumamoto31%

×Draw26%

Machida Zelvia43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Roasso KumamotoExpected goals in this matchMachida Zelvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.41

Roasso Kumamoto

1.15

Machida Zelvia

1.41

Machida Zelvia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 127 away

1.18

creates per match

1.31

1.50

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Roasso Kumamoto

1.18

Machida Zelvia

1.31

allows per match

Roasso Kumamoto

1.50

Machida Zelvia

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roasso Kumamoto ↓

Machida Zelvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Roasso Kumamoto or draw

57%

Roasso Kumamoto or Machida Zelvia

74%

Draw or Machida Zelvia

69%

Winning margin

Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+

12%

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals

68%

Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals

32%

Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals

11%

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

76%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

41%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)

42%

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roasso Kumamoto at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.50 · 107 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.18 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Roasso Kumamoto scores more

31%

level

26%

Machida Zelvia scores more

43%

Machida Zelvia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff