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Machida Zelvia vs Roasso Kumamoto — J2 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Roasso Kumamoto
Roasso Kumamoto
4/29/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 12Machida Gion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Machida Zelvia41%
×Draw26%
Roasso Kumamoto33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.41
Roasso Kumamoto
1.22

Machida Zelvia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 104 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.32
Roasso Kumamoto
1.33

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.10
Roasso Kumamoto
1.49

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Roasso Kumamoto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
67%
Machida Zelvia or Roasso Kumamoto
74%
Draw or Roasso Kumamoto
59%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
20%
Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
76%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
41%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
17%
Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals
70%
Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals
34%
Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
56%
Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

Roasso Kumamoto away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.49 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.32 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.33 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
41%
level
26%
Roasso Kumamoto scores more
33%

Machida Zelvia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Machida Zelvia vs Roasso Kumamoto

Machida Zelvia beat Roasso Kumamoto 2-1 in J2 League on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Machida Gion Stadium in Tokyo.