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Roasso Kumamoto vs Kyoto Sanga — J2 League 2018

Roasso Kumamoto
Roasso Kumamoto
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
K. Saito 86'
K. Yamase 14'
Yong-Jae Lee 12'
11/6/2016J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 40Umakana Yokana Stadium (Kumamoto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Roasso Kumamoto33%
×Draw27%
Kyoto Sanga40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roasso Kumamoto
1.19
Kyoto Sanga
1.35

Kyoto Sanga creates 13% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 89 away

creates per match

Roasso Kumamoto
1.18
Kyoto Sanga
1.19

allows per match

Roasso Kumamoto
1.51
Kyoto Sanga
1.21

finishing

Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roasso Kumamoto ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Roasso Kumamoto or draw
60%
Roasso Kumamoto or Kyoto Sanga
73%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
67%

Winning margin

Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+
14%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals
70%
Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals
33%
Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals
12%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
74%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
39%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)
45%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roasso Kumamoto at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.51 · 108 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.18 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.19 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Roasso Kumamoto scores more
33%
level
27%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
40%

Kyoto Sanga at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Yong-Jae Lee
14'
K. Yamase
86'
K. Saito

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roasso Kumamoto vs Kyoto Sanga

Kyoto Sanga beat Roasso Kumamoto 2-1 in J2 League on November 6, 2016.

Goals: Yong-Jae Lee (12'), K. Yamase (14'), K. Saito (86').

The match was played at Umakana Yokana Stadium (Kumamoto).