Kyoto Sanga vs Roasso Kumamoto — J2 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 89+ matches
Kyoto Sanga43%
Roasso Kumamoto31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kyoto Sanga creates 22% more chances
Season form · 89 home / 105 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kyoto Sanga ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 89 matches
Roasso Kumamoto away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.50 · 105 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kyoto Sanga attack 1.33 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42
Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.32 + Kyoto Sanga defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.16
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Kyoto Sanga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kyoto Sanga host Roasso Kumamoto on Saturday, 14 October 2017 at 06:00. The match is part of the J2 League 2018/2019 season.
Kyoto Sanga 2 – 1 Roasso Kumamoto
Kyoto Sanga beat Roasso Kumamoto 2-1 in J2 League on October 14, 2017.
Goals: M. Tanaka (23' o.g., 71'), Y. Ishibitsu (38').
The match was played at Kyōto Nishikyogoku Stadium (Kyōto (Kyoto)).