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Roasso Kumamoto vs Fujieda MYFC — J2 League 2018

Roasso Kumamoto
Roasso Kumamoto
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fujieda MYFC
Fujieda MYFC
9/1/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 29Egao Kenko Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Roasso Kumamoto40%
×Draw26%
Fujieda MYFC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roasso Kumamoto
1.43
Fujieda MYFC
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 59 away

creates per match

Roasso Kumamoto
1.18
Fujieda MYFC
1.12

allows per match

Roasso Kumamoto
1.49
Fujieda MYFC
1.68

finishing

Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par
Fujieda MYFC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roasso Kumamoto ↓

Fujieda MYFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Roasso Kumamoto or draw
66%
Roasso Kumamoto or Fujieda MYFC
74%
Draw or Fujieda MYFC
60%

Winning margin

Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+
19%
Fujieda MYFC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals
76%
Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals
42%
Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals
17%
Fujieda MYFC 1+ goals
73%
Fujieda MYFC 2+ goals
38%
Fujieda MYFC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)
54%
Fujieda MYFC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roasso Kumamoto at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.49 · 107 matches

Fujieda MYFC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.68 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.18 + Fujieda MYFC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.43

Fujieda MYFC attack 1.12 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Roasso Kumamoto scores more
40%
level
26%
Fujieda MYFC scores more
34%

Roasso Kumamoto at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Roasso Kumamoto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roasso Kumamoto vs Fujieda MYFC

Fujieda MYFC beat Roasso Kumamoto 2-1 in J2 League on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Egao Kenko Stadium in Kumamoto.