Fujieda MYFC 0–2 Roasso Kumamoto: Result & Stats

Fujieda MYFC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Roasso Kumamoto

4/25/2025

J2 League · Round 11Fujieda soccer stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Fujieda MYFC38%

×Draw26%

Roasso Kumamoto37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fujieda MYFCExpected goals in this matchRoasso Kumamoto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.35

Fujieda MYFC

1.37

Roasso Kumamoto

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 104 away

1.25

creates per match

1.33

1.36

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Fujieda MYFC

1.25

Roasso Kumamoto

1.33

allows per match

Fujieda MYFC

1.36

Roasso Kumamoto

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fujieda MYFC+0.00on par

Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fujieda MYFC ↓

Roasso Kumamoto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fujieda MYFC or draw

63%

Fujieda MYFC or Roasso Kumamoto

74%

Draw or Roasso Kumamoto

62%

Winning margin

Fujieda MYFC wins by 2+

17%

Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Fujieda MYFC 1+ goals

75%

Fujieda MYFC 2+ goals

40%

Fujieda MYFC 3+ goals

16%

Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals

74%

Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals

39%

Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Fujieda MYFC (draw refunded)

51%

Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fujieda MYFC at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.36 · 59 matches

Roasso Kumamoto away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.49 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fujieda MYFC attack 1.25 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.37

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.33 + Fujieda MYFC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fujieda MYFC scores more

38%

level

26%

Roasso Kumamoto scores more

37%

Fujieda MYFC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fujieda MYFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff