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Roasso Kumamoto vs Ehime FC — J2 League 2018

Roasso Kumamoto
Roasso Kumamoto
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ehime FC
Ehime FC
11/17/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 42Egao Kenko Stadium (Kumamoto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Roasso Kumamoto41%
×Draw26%
Ehime FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roasso Kumamoto
1.41
Ehime FC
1.25

Roasso Kumamoto creates 13% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 123 away

creates per match

Roasso Kumamoto
1.18
Ehime FC
0.98

allows per match

Roasso Kumamoto
1.51
Ehime FC
1.64

finishing

Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par
Ehime FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roasso Kumamoto ↓

Ehime FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Roasso Kumamoto or draw
67%
Roasso Kumamoto or Ehime FC
74%
Draw or Ehime FC
59%

Winning margin

Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+
19%
Ehime FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals
76%
Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals
41%
Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals
17%
Ehime FC 1+ goals
71%
Ehime FC 2+ goals
36%
Ehime FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)
55%
Ehime FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roasso Kumamoto at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.51 · 108 matches

Ehime FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.64 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.18 + Ehime FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ehime FC attack 0.98 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Roasso Kumamoto scores more
41%
level
26%
Ehime FC scores more
33%

Roasso Kumamoto at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Roasso Kumamoto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Roasso Kumamoto 3–0 Ehime FC

Roasso Kumamoto beat Ehime FC 3-0 in J2 League on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Egao Kenko Stadium (Kumamoto).