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Ehime FC vs Roasso Kumamoto — J2 League 2018

Ehime FC
Ehime FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Roasso Kumamoto
Roasso Kumamoto
3/10/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 3Ningineer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Ehime FC32%
×Draw26%
Roasso Kumamoto42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ehime FC
1.21
Roasso Kumamoto
1.42

Roasso Kumamoto creates 17% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 105 away

creates per match

Ehime FC
0.92
Roasso Kumamoto
1.32

allows per match

Ehime FC
1.52
Roasso Kumamoto
1.50

finishing

Ehime FC+0.00on par
Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ehime FC ↓

Roasso Kumamoto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ehime FC or draw
58%
Ehime FC or Roasso Kumamoto
74%
Draw or Roasso Kumamoto
68%

Winning margin

Ehime FC wins by 2+
13%
Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ehime FC 1+ goals
70%
Ehime FC 2+ goals
34%
Ehime FC 3+ goals
12%
Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals
76%
Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals
41%
Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ehime FC (draw refunded)
43%
Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ehime FC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 124 matches

Roasso Kumamoto away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.50 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ehime FC attack 0.92 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.21

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.32 + Ehime FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ehime FC scores more
32%
level
26%
Roasso Kumamoto scores more
42%

Roasso Kumamoto at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Roasso Kumamoto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Ehime FC 2–3 Roasso Kumamoto

Roasso Kumamoto beat Ehime FC 3-2 in J2 League on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Ningineer Stadium in Matsuyama.