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RNK Split vs NK Zadar — Third NL - Jug 2019

RNK Split
RNK Split
FT
4 – 1
NK Zadar
NK Zadar
2/22/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 16Stadion Park mladeži

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

RNK Split52%
×Draw24%
NK Zadar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RNK Split
1.67
NK Zadar
1.06

RNK Split creates 58% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 9 away

creates per match

RNK Split
1.67
NK Zadar
1.11

allows per match

RNK Split
1.00
NK Zadar
1.67

finishing

RNK Split+0.00on par
NK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RNK Split ↓

NK Zadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

RNK Split or draw
76%
RNK Split or NK Zadar
76%
Draw or NK Zadar
48%

Winning margin

RNK Split wins by 2+
28%
NK Zadar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

RNK Split 1+ goals
81%
RNK Split 2+ goals
50%
RNK Split 3+ goals
23%
NK Zadar 1+ goals
65%
NK Zadar 2+ goals
29%
NK Zadar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RNK Split (draw refunded)
68%
NK Zadar (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RNK Split at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 57 matches

NK Zadar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RNK Split attack 1.67 + NK Zadar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

NK Zadar attack 1.11 + RNK Split defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

RNK Split scores more
52%
level
24%
NK Zadar scores more
24%

RNK Split at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "RNK Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RNK Split vs NK Zadar

RNK Split beat NK Zadar 4-1 in Third NL - Jug on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Park mladeži in Split.