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NK Zadar vs RNK Split — Third NL - Jug 2019

NK Zadar
NK Zadar
FT
3 – 0
RNK Split
RNK Split
8/31/2019Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 1Stadion Stanovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

NK Zadar54%
×Draw23%
RNK Split24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Zadar
1.87
RNK Split
1.17

NK Zadar creates 60% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 57 away

creates per match

NK Zadar
2.11
RNK Split
1.23

allows per match

NK Zadar
1.11
RNK Split
1.63

finishing

NK Zadar+0.00on par
RNK Split+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Zadar ↓

RNK Split →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

NK Zadar or draw
76%
NK Zadar or RNK Split
77%
Draw or RNK Split
46%

Winning margin

NK Zadar wins by 2+
30%
RNK Split wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

NK Zadar 1+ goals
85%
NK Zadar 2+ goals
56%
NK Zadar 3+ goals
29%
RNK Split 1+ goals
69%
RNK Split 2+ goals
33%
RNK Split 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

NK Zadar (draw refunded)
69%
RNK Split (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Zadar at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

RNK Split away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.63 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Zadar attack 2.11 + RNK Split defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.87

RNK Split attack 1.23 + NK Zadar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

NK Zadar scores more
54%
level
23%
RNK Split scores more
24%

NK Zadar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "NK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: NK Zadar 3–0 RNK Split

NK Zadar beat RNK Split 3-0 in Third NL - Jug on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Stanovi in Zadar.