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RNK Split vs Jadran LP — Third NL - Jug 2019

RNK Split
RNK Split
CANC
15:00
Jadran LP
Jadran LP
5/16/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 29Stadion Park mladeži

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

RNK Split47%
×Draw27%
Jadran LP26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RNK Split
1.42
Jadran LP
0.97

RNK Split creates 46% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 42 away

creates per match

RNK Split
1.67
Jadran LP
0.93

allows per match

RNK Split
1.00
Jadran LP
1.17

finishing

RNK Split+0.00on par
Jadran LP+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RNK Split ↓

Jadran LP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

RNK Split or draw
74%
RNK Split or Jadran LP
73%
Draw or Jadran LP
53%

Winning margin

RNK Split wins by 2+
23%
Jadran LP wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

RNK Split 1+ goals
76%
RNK Split 2+ goals
41%
RNK Split 3+ goals
17%
Jadran LP 1+ goals
62%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
25%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RNK Split (draw refunded)
65%
Jadran LP (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RNK Split at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 57 matches

Jadran LP away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.17 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RNK Split attack 1.67 + Jadran LP defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Jadran LP attack 0.93 + RNK Split defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

RNK Split scores more
47%
level
27%
Jadran LP scores more
26%

RNK Split at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "RNK Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: RNK Split host Jadran LP

May 16, 2020: RNK Split take on Jadran LP in Third NL - Jug. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

RNK Split host Jadran LP at Stadion Park mladeži.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.