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Jadran LP vs RNK Split — Third NL - Jug 2019

Jadran LP
Jadran LP
FT
4 – 2
RNK Split
RNK Split
11/14/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 15Igralište NK Jadran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Jadran LP66%
×Draw19%
RNK Split15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran LP
2.19
RNK Split
0.94

Jadran LP creates 133% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 57 away

creates per match

Jadran LP
2.76
RNK Split
1.23

allows per match

Jadran LP
0.64
RNK Split
1.63

finishing

Jadran LP+0.00on par
RNK Split+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran LP ↓

RNK Split →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jadran LP or draw
85%
Jadran LP or RNK Split
81%
Draw or RNK Split
34%

Winning margin

Jadran LP wins by 2+
42%
RNK Split wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jadran LP 1+ goals
89%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
64%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
37%
RNK Split 1+ goals
61%
RNK Split 2+ goals
24%
RNK Split 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jadran LP (draw refunded)
81%
RNK Split (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran LP at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.64 · 42 matches

RNK Split away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.63 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran LP attack 2.76 + RNK Split defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.19

RNK Split attack 1.23 + Jadran LP defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Jadran LP scores more
66%
level
19%
RNK Split scores more
15%

Jadran LP at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jadran LP vs RNK Split

Jadran LP beat RNK Split 4-2 in Third NL - Jug on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Igralište NK Jadran in Ploče.