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RNK Split vs HNK Zadar — Third NL - Jug 2019

RNK Split
RNK Split
FT
1 – 1
HNK Zadar
HNK Zadar
9/11/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 4Stadion Park mladeži

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

RNK Split39%
×Draw26%
HNK Zadar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RNK Split
1.38
HNK Zadar
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 77 away

creates per match

RNK Split
1.67
HNK Zadar
1.58

allows per match

RNK Split
1.00
HNK Zadar
1.09

finishing

RNK Split+0.00on par
HNK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RNK Split ↓

HNK Zadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

RNK Split or draw
65%
RNK Split or HNK Zadar
74%
Draw or HNK Zadar
61%

Winning margin

RNK Split wins by 2+
18%
HNK Zadar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

RNK Split 1+ goals
75%
RNK Split 2+ goals
40%
RNK Split 3+ goals
16%
HNK Zadar 1+ goals
72%
HNK Zadar 2+ goals
37%
HNK Zadar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

RNK Split (draw refunded)
53%
HNK Zadar (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RNK Split at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 57 matches

HNK Zadar away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RNK Split attack 1.67 + HNK Zadar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.38

HNK Zadar attack 1.58 + RNK Split defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

RNK Split scores more
39%
level
26%
HNK Zadar scores more
35%

RNK Split at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "RNK Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RNK Split vs HNK Zadar

RNK Split and HNK Zadar drew 1-1 in Third NL - Jug on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Park mladeži in Split.