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HNK Zadar vs RNK Split — Third NL - Jug 2019

HNK Zadar
HNK Zadar
FT
5 – 0
RNK Split
RNK Split
2/25/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 17Stadion Stanovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

HNK Zadar66%
×Draw19%
RNK Split15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Zadar
2.25
RNK Split
0.99

HNK Zadar creates 127% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 57 away

creates per match

HNK Zadar
2.86
RNK Split
1.23

allows per match

HNK Zadar
0.75
RNK Split
1.63

finishing

HNK Zadar+0.00on par
RNK Split+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Zadar ↓

RNK Split →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

HNK Zadar or draw
85%
HNK Zadar or RNK Split
81%
Draw or RNK Split
34%

Winning margin

HNK Zadar wins by 2+
42%
RNK Split wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

HNK Zadar 1+ goals
89%
HNK Zadar 2+ goals
65%
HNK Zadar 3+ goals
39%
RNK Split 1+ goals
63%
RNK Split 2+ goals
26%
RNK Split 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

HNK Zadar (draw refunded)
81%
RNK Split (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Zadar at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.75 · 77 matches

RNK Split away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.63 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Zadar attack 2.86 + RNK Split defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.25

RNK Split attack 1.23 + HNK Zadar defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

HNK Zadar scores more
66%
level
19%
RNK Split scores more
15%

HNK Zadar at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "HNK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: HNK Zadar 5–0 RNK Split

HNK Zadar beat RNK Split 5-0 in Third NL - Jug on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Stanovi in Zadar.