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RM Hamm Benfica vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg — National Division 2018

RM Hamm Benfica
RM Hamm Benfica
FT
2 – 0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
3/10/2019National DivisionNational Division · Round 16Terrain de Football Cents (Lëtzebuerg (Luxembourg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

RM Hamm Benfica23%
×Draw22%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RM Hamm Benfica
1.17
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.92

Racing FC Union Luxembourg creates 64% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 114 away

creates per match

RM Hamm Benfica
1.00
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.64

allows per match

RM Hamm Benfica
2.19
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.33

finishing

RM Hamm Benfica+0.00on par
Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RM Hamm Benfica ↓

Racing FC Union Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

RM Hamm Benfica or draw
45%
RM Hamm Benfica or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
78%
Draw or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
77%

Winning margin

RM Hamm Benfica wins by 2+
9%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

RM Hamm Benfica 1+ goals
69%
RM Hamm Benfica 2+ goals
33%
RM Hamm Benfica 3+ goals
11%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals
85%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals
57%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

RM Hamm Benfica (draw refunded)
30%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RM Hamm Benfica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.19 · 53 matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.33 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RM Hamm Benfica attack 1.00 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.64 + RM Hamm Benfica defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

RM Hamm Benfica scores more
23%
level
22%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more
55%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
Claudio Furtado
64'
Idir Mokrani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RM Hamm Benfica vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg

RM Hamm Benfica beat Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2-0 in National Division on March 10, 2019.

Goals: Claudio Furtado (40'), Idir Mokrani (64').

The match was played at Terrain de Football Cents (Lëtzebuerg (Luxembourg)).