Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3–0 RM Hamm Benfica

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

RM Hamm Benfica

Y. Mabella 89', 44'

J. Simon 59'

5/16/2021

National Division · Round 28Stade Achille Hammerel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg55%

×Draw22%

RM Hamm Benfica24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing FC Union LuxembourgExpected goals in this matchRM Hamm Benfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.25

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

2.00

RM Hamm Benfica

1.25

Racing FC Union Luxembourg creates 60% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 52 away

1.65

creates per match

1.13

1.37

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.65

RM Hamm Benfica

1.13

allows per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.37

RM Hamm Benfica

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

RM Hamm Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing FC Union Luxembourg ↓

RM Hamm Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Racing FC Union Luxembourg or draw

76%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg or RM Hamm Benfica

78%

Draw or RM Hamm Benfica

45%

Winning margin

Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+

32%

RM Hamm Benfica wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals

86%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals

59%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals

32%

RM Hamm Benfica 1+ goals

71%

RM Hamm Benfica 2+ goals

36%

RM Hamm Benfica 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)

70%

RM Hamm Benfica (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.37 · 116 matches

RM Hamm Benfica away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.35 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.65 + RM Hamm Benfica defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.00

RM Hamm Benfica attack 1.13 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more

55%

level

22%

RM Hamm Benfica scores more

24%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

Samuel Correia← C. Mendes

44'

Y. Mabella

54'

D. Kuete Nsidjine← J. Crillon

59'

J. Simon

79'

E. Sousa← Leandro Souza

80'

L. Tinelli← J. Simon

89'

Y. Mabella

Racing

RM

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

Manager: R. Brouard

54'▲D. Kuete Nsidjine←▼J. Crillon

80'▲L. Tinelli←▼J. Simon

Racing FC Union Luxembourg substitutes

NsidjineTinelli

Manager: Pedro Resende

38'▲Samuel Correia←▼C. Mendes

79'▲E. Sousa←▼Leandro Souza

RM Hamm Benfica substitutes

CorreiaSousa

Match Recap: Racing FC Union Luxembourg vs RM Hamm Benfica

Racing FC Union Luxembourg beat RM Hamm Benfica 3-0 in National Division on May 16, 2021.

Goals: Y. Mabella (44', 89'), J. Simon (59').

The match was played at Stade Achille Hammerel in Luxembourg.

Racing FC Union Luxembourg vs RM Hamm Benfica — National Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Racing FC Union Luxembourg vs RM Hamm Benfica