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RKAV Volendam vs HSV ODIN 59 — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

RKAV Volendam
RKAV Volendam
FT
11 – 2
HT: 4 – 1
HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
3/23/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 26KWABO-stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

RKAV Volendam59%
×Draw19%
HSV ODIN 5922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RKAV Volendam
2.46
HSV ODIN 59
1.45

RKAV Volendam creates 70% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 46 away

creates per match

RKAV Volendam
2.50
HSV ODIN 59
1.43

allows per match

RKAV Volendam
1.47
HSV ODIN 59
2.43

finishing

RKAV Volendam+0.00on par
HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RKAV Volendam ↓

HSV ODIN 59 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

RKAV Volendam or draw
78%
RKAV Volendam or HSV ODIN 59
81%
Draw or HSV ODIN 59
41%

Winning margin

RKAV Volendam wins by 2+
38%
HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

RKAV Volendam 1+ goals
91%
RKAV Volendam 2+ goals
70%
RKAV Volendam 3+ goals
44%
HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
77%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
42%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

RKAV Volendam (draw refunded)
73%
HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RKAV Volendam at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

HSV ODIN 59 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RKAV Volendam attack 2.50 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.46

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.43 + RKAV Volendam defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

RKAV Volendam scores more
59%
level
19%
HSV ODIN 59 scores more
22%

RKAV Volendam at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "RKAV Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: RKAV Volendam 11–2 HSV ODIN 59

RKAV Volendam beat HSV ODIN 59 11-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at KWABO-stadion in Volendam.