HSV ODIN 59 0–5 RKAV Volendam: Result & Stats

HSV ODIN 59

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

RKAV Volendam

10/14/2023

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 9Sportpark Assumburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

HSV ODIN 5941%

×Draw21%

RKAV Volendam38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HSV ODIN 59Expected goals in this matchRKAV Volendam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.91

HSV ODIN 59

1.98

RKAV Volendam

1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 34 away

1.75

creates per match

1.74

2.08

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

HSV ODIN 59

1.75

RKAV Volendam

1.74

allows per match

HSV ODIN 59

2.08

RKAV Volendam

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par

RKAV Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HSV ODIN 59 ↓

RKAV Volendam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

HSV ODIN 59 or draw

62%

HSV ODIN 59 or RKAV Volendam

79%

Draw or RKAV Volendam

59%

Winning margin

HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+

22%

RKAV Volendam wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals

86%

HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals

59%

HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals

31%

RKAV Volendam 1+ goals

85%

RKAV Volendam 2+ goals

57%

RKAV Volendam 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)

52%

RKAV Volendam (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HSV ODIN 59 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

RKAV Volendam away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.75 + RKAV Volendam defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.98

RKAV Volendam attack 1.74 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

HSV ODIN 59 scores more

41%

level

21%

RKAV Volendam scores more

38%

HSV ODIN 59 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "HSV ODIN 59 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff