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RKAV Volendam vs Hercules — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

RKAV Volendam
RKAV Volendam
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hercules
Hercules
12/2/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 15KWABO-stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

RKAV Volendam52%
×Draw21%
Hercules27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RKAV Volendam
2.13
Hercules
1.49

RKAV Volendam creates 43% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

RKAV Volendam
2.50
Hercules
1.51

allows per match

RKAV Volendam
1.47
Hercules
1.76

finishing

RKAV Volendam+0.00on par
Hercules+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RKAV Volendam ↓

Hercules →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

RKAV Volendam or draw
73%
RKAV Volendam or Hercules
79%
Draw or Hercules
48%

Winning margin

RKAV Volendam wins by 2+
31%
Hercules wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

RKAV Volendam 1+ goals
88%
RKAV Volendam 2+ goals
63%
RKAV Volendam 3+ goals
35%
Hercules 1+ goals
77%
Hercules 2+ goals
44%
Hercules 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

RKAV Volendam (draw refunded)
66%
Hercules (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RKAV Volendam at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Hercules away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RKAV Volendam attack 2.50 + Hercules defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.13

Hercules attack 1.51 + RKAV Volendam defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

RKAV Volendam scores more
52%
level
21%
Hercules scores more
27%

RKAV Volendam at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "RKAV Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: RKAV Volendam 3–1 Hercules

RKAV Volendam beat Hercules 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at KWABO-stadion in Volendam.