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Hercules vs RKAV Volendam — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hercules
Hercules
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
RKAV Volendam
RKAV Volendam
5/11/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 32Sportpark Voordorp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hercules51%
×Draw21%
RKAV Volendam28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hercules
2.13
RKAV Volendam
1.52

Hercules creates 40% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hercules
2.04
RKAV Volendam
1.74

allows per match

Hercules
1.29
RKAV Volendam
2.21

finishing

Hercules+0.00on par
RKAV Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hercules ↓

RKAV Volendam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Hercules or draw
72%
Hercules or RKAV Volendam
79%
Draw or RKAV Volendam
49%

Winning margin

Hercules wins by 2+
30%
RKAV Volendam wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hercules 1+ goals
88%
Hercules 2+ goals
63%
Hercules 3+ goals
35%
RKAV Volendam 1+ goals
78%
RKAV Volendam 2+ goals
45%
RKAV Volendam 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hercules (draw refunded)
65%
RKAV Volendam (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hercules at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

RKAV Volendam away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hercules attack 2.04 + RKAV Volendam defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.13

RKAV Volendam attack 1.74 + Hercules defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hercules scores more
51%
level
21%
RKAV Volendam scores more
28%

Hercules at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Hercules 4–0 RKAV Volendam

Hercules beat RKAV Volendam 4-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Voordorp in Utrecht.