Rizhao Yuqi 1–0 Quanzhou Yassin: Result & Stats

Rizhao Yuqi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Quanzhou Yassin

10/6/2024

League Two · Relegation Round - 8Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rizhao Yuqi50%

×Draw28%

Quanzhou Yassin22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rizhao YuqiExpected goals in this matchQuanzhou Yassin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.79

Rizhao Yuqi

1.35

Quanzhou Yassin

0.79

Rizhao Yuqi creates 71% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 47 away

0.92

creates per match

0.77

0.81

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Rizhao Yuqi

0.92

Quanzhou Yassin

0.77

allows per match

Rizhao Yuqi

0.81

Quanzhou Yassin

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rizhao Yuqi+0.00on par

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizhao Yuqi ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rizhao Yuqi or draw

78%

Rizhao Yuqi or Quanzhou Yassin

72%

Draw or Quanzhou Yassin

50%

Winning margin

Rizhao Yuqi wins by 2+

24%

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rizhao Yuqi 1+ goals

74%

Rizhao Yuqi 2+ goals

39%

Rizhao Yuqi 3+ goals

15%

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

55%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

19%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Rizhao Yuqi (draw refunded)

70%

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizhao Yuqi at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizhao Yuqi attack 0.92 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.35

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Rizhao Yuqi defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rizhao Yuqi scores more

50%

level

28%

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

22%

Rizhao Yuqi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rizhao Yuqi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff