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Rizhao Yuqi vs Guangxi Lanhang — League Two 2022

Rizhao Yuqi
Rizhao Yuqi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
8/17/2024League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 1Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rizhao Yuqi45%
×Draw30%
Guangxi Lanhang26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rizhao Yuqi
1.21
Guangxi Lanhang
0.84

Rizhao Yuqi creates 44% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 40 away

creates per match

Rizhao Yuqi
0.92
Guangxi Lanhang
0.88

allows per match

Rizhao Yuqi
0.81
Guangxi Lanhang
1.50

finishing

Rizhao Yuqi+0.00on par
Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizhao Yuqi ↓

Guangxi Lanhang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rizhao Yuqi or draw
74%
Rizhao Yuqi or Guangxi Lanhang
70%
Draw or Guangxi Lanhang
55%

Winning margin

Rizhao Yuqi wins by 2+
20%
Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rizhao Yuqi 1+ goals
70%
Rizhao Yuqi 2+ goals
34%
Rizhao Yuqi 3+ goals
12%
Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
57%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
21%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rizhao Yuqi (draw refunded)
64%
Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizhao Yuqi at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

Guangxi Lanhang away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizhao Yuqi attack 0.92 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.21

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.88 + Rizhao Yuqi defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rizhao Yuqi scores more
45%
level
30%
Guangxi Lanhang scores more
26%

Rizhao Yuqi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rizhao Yuqi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Rizhao Yuqi 1–0 Guangxi Lanhang

Rizhao Yuqi beat Guangxi Lanhang 1-0 in League Two on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium in Rizhao.