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Guangxi Lanhang vs Rizhao Yuqi — League Two 2022

Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Rizhao Yuqi
Rizhao Yuqi
9/22/2024League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 6Baise Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Guangxi Lanhang30%
×Draw28%
Rizhao Yuqi42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangxi Lanhang
1.06
Rizhao Yuqi
1.31

Rizhao Yuqi creates 24% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 36 away

creates per match

Guangxi Lanhang
0.80
Rizhao Yuqi
0.92

allows per match

Guangxi Lanhang
1.70
Rizhao Yuqi
1.33

finishing

Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par
Rizhao Yuqi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Lanhang ↓

Rizhao Yuqi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guangxi Lanhang or draw
58%
Guangxi Lanhang or Rizhao Yuqi
72%
Draw or Rizhao Yuqi
70%

Winning margin

Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
12%
Rizhao Yuqi wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
65%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
29%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
9%
Rizhao Yuqi 1+ goals
73%
Rizhao Yuqi 2+ goals
38%
Rizhao Yuqi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
42%
Rizhao Yuqi (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Lanhang at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

Rizhao Yuqi away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.33 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.80 + Rizhao Yuqi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Rizhao Yuqi attack 0.92 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guangxi Lanhang scores more
30%
level
28%
Rizhao Yuqi scores more
42%

Rizhao Yuqi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rizhao Yuqi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Guangxi Lanhang 2–2 Rizhao Yuqi

Guangxi Lanhang and Rizhao Yuqi drew 2-2 in League Two on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Baise Sports Center Stadium in Baise.