Rizespor 3–1 Erzurumspor FK: Result & Stats

Rizespor

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Erzurumspor FK

D. Hümmet 23'

E. Altıntaş 12'

Y. Bolasie 2'

E. Tozlu 76'

11/4/2022

1. Lig · Round 12Çaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rizespor49%

×Draw25%

Erzurumspor FK26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RizesporExpected goals in this matchErzurumspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.07

Rizespor

1.56

Erzurumspor FK

1.07

Rizespor creates 46% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

2.06

creates per match

1.15

1.00

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Rizespor

2.06

Erzurumspor FK

1.15

allows per match

Rizespor

1.00

Erzurumspor FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rizespor+0.00on par

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Erzurumspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw

74%

Rizespor or Erzurumspor FK

75%

Draw or Erzurumspor FK

51%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+

25%

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals

79%

Rizespor 2+ goals

46%

Rizespor 3+ goals

21%

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

66%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

29%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)

65%

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 2.06 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.56

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.15 + Rizespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rizespor scores more

49%

level

25%

Erzurumspor FK scores more

26%

Rizespor at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rizespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Y. Bolasie

Rizespor · M

7.9

Match Events

2'

Y. Bolasie↳ A. Potuk

4'

Yannick BolasieGoal confirmed

12'

E. Altıntaş↳ Y. Bolasie

23'

D. Hümmet↳ A. Potuk

35'

E. Papa← K. Kalafat

46'

S. Koç← M. Rosheuvel

67'

B. Keser← E. Altıntaş

67'

S. Yılmaz← A. van den Hurk

74'

76'

79'

84'

87'

87'

Z. Bergdich← C. Bayrak

90+2'

Enriko Papa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RizesporErzurumspor

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots12

4Corners5

16Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots12

5On Target3

3Off Target7

3Blocked2

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

309Total Passes356

230Accurate Passes257

74%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4