Erzurumspor FK 1–1 Rizespor: Result & Stats

Erzurumspor FK

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rizespor

E. Tozlu 18'

B. Keser 34'

4/9/2023

1. Lig · Round 31Eyüp Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Erzurumspor FK40%

×Draw27%

Rizespor33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzurumspor FKExpected goals in this matchRizespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.19

Erzurumspor FK

1.32

Rizespor

1.19

Erzurumspor FK creates 11% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 18 away

1.64

creates per match

1.44

0.94

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK

1.64

Rizespor

1.44

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK

0.94

Rizespor

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Rizespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Rizespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw

67%

Erzurumspor FK or Rizespor

73%

Draw or Rizespor

60%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

18%

Rizespor wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

73%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

38%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

15%

Rizespor 1+ goals

70%

Rizespor 2+ goals

33%

Rizespor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

54%

Rizespor (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Rizespor away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.64 + Rizespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Rizespor attack 1.44 + Erzurumspor FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more

40%

level

27%

Rizespor scores more

33%

Erzurumspor FK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

54

M. Pala

Rizespor · D

7.6

Match Events

18'

E. Tozlu↳ C. Hanalp

34'

B. Keser↳ Amilton

59'

Celal Hanalp

63'

Mikhael Rosheuvel

66'

H. Shala← A. Özfesli

67'

O. Özçiçek← A. Okechukwu

67'

K. Kanatsızkuş← Amilton

79'

F. Miya← A. Potuk

79'

85'

87'

90+3'

90'

A. Olanare← M. Rosheuvel

90+6'

E. Oskan← O. Ovacıklı

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ErzurumsporRizespor

Overview

32%Possession68%

6Total Shots15

3Corners4

14Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots15

3On Target3

3Off Target10

0Blocked2

4Inside Box10

2Outside Box5

Passing

32%Possession68%

255Total Passes512

158Accurate Passes419

62%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1