Rizespor 1–1 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats | League #203

Rizespor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Beşiktaş

Gedson Fernandes 38' (OG)

E. Muçi 45+3'

1/3/2025

League #203 · Round 18Çaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Rizespor39%

×Draw26%

Beşiktaş34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RizesporExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.25

Rizespor

1.36

Beşiktaş

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Rizespor

1.50

Beşiktaş

1.00

allows per match

Rizespor

1.50

Beşiktaş

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rizespor+0.00on par

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw

66%

Rizespor or Beşiktaş

74%

Draw or Beşiktaş

61%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+

18%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals

74%

Rizespor 2+ goals

39%

Rizespor 3+ goals

16%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

71%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

36%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)

53%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 1.50 + Beşiktaş defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

Beşiktaş attack 1.00 + Rizespor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rizespor scores more

39%

level

26%

Beşiktaş scores more

34%

Rizespor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rizespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

M. Günok

Beşiktaş · G

7.7

Match Events

25'

Felix Uduokhai

38'

Gedson FernandesOwn goal

41'

42'

45'

45+3'

51'

G. Papanikolaou← I. Olawoyin

56'

Husniddin Alikulov

74'

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain← E. Muçi

74'

C. Ndour← S. Uçan

74'

S. Kılıçsoy← C. Immobile

76'

M. Buljubašić← D. Varešanović

82'

Jonas Svensson

83'

V. Jurečka← A. Sowe

83'

E. Bulut← D. Akintola

83'

C. Højer← A. Hadžiahmetović

87'

O. Bulut← J. Svensson

90+1'

Rachid Ghezzal

90+5'

Václav JurečkaGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RizesporBeşiktaş

Overview

47%Possession53%

21Total Shots9

2.77Expected Goals (xG)0.49

6Corners2

17Fouls15

Shots

21Total Shots9

5On Target2

8Off Target5

8Blocked2

15Inside Box5

6Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

390Total Passes458

304Accurate Passes384

78%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

1.37Goals Prevented1.37

Discipline

17Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1