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Beşiktaş vs Rizespor — League #203 2026

Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Rizespor
Rizespor
João Mário 64'
A. Sowe 90+1'
S. Akaydin 61'
5/25/2025League #203League #203 · Round 37Tüpraş Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Beşiktaş61%
×Draw22%
Rizespor17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beşiktaş
1.91
Rizespor
0.89

Beşiktaş creates 115% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Beşiktaş
1.38
Rizespor
0.78

allows per match

Beşiktaş
1.00
Rizespor
2.44

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par
Rizespor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Rizespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw
83%
Beşiktaş or Rizespor
78%
Draw or Rizespor
39%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+
36%
Rizespor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals
85%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals
57%
Beşiktaş 3+ goals
30%
Rizespor 1+ goals
59%
Rizespor 2+ goals
22%
Rizespor 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)
78%
Rizespor (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Rizespor away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.38 + Rizespor defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.91

Rizespor attack 0.78 + Beşiktaş defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Beşiktaş scores more
61%
level
22%
Rizespor scores more
17%

Beşiktaş at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
S. AkaydinRizesporRizespor · D
8.3

Match Events

23'
Dal Varešanović
31'
Attila Mocsi
37'
Mithat Pala
39'
Ciro Immobile
53'
João Mário← K. Arroyo
53'
M. Hekimoğlu← C. Immobile
61'
S. Akaydin↳ C. Højer
64'
João Mário↳ A. Masuaku
68'
B. Özcan← A. Zeqiri
68'
D. Akintola← D. Varešanović
78'
M. Buljubašić← R. Ghezzal
81'
S. Kılıçsoy← E. Muçi
87'
H. Aliqulov← M. Pala
89'
Jonas Svensson
90'
A. Kılıç← J. Svensson
90'
E. Topçu← F. Uduokhai
90+1'
A. Sowe↳ T. Şahin

Possession

58%Beşiktaş

Shots

25Beşiktaş

Pass accuracy

51%Beşiktaş

Statistics

BeşiktaşRizespor
Overview
58%Possession42%
25Total Shots10
1.25Expected Goals (xG)0.59
6Corners7
9Fouls15
Shots
25Total Shots10
4On Target5
10Off Target3
11Blocked2
13Inside Box6
12Outside Box4
Passing
58%Possession42%
480Total Passes342
414Accurate Passes287
86%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
-0.34Goals Prevented-0.34
Discipline
9Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Beşiktaş vs Rizespor

Rizespor beat Beşiktaş 2-1 in League #203 on May 25, 2025.

Goals: S. Akaydin (61'), João Mário (64'), A. Sowe (90+1').

Beşiktaş controlled possession (58%) and registered 25 shots to 10.

The match was played at Tüpraş Stadyumu in İstanbul.