Rizespor 2–2 Ankaragücü: Result & Stats

Rizespor

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Ankaragücü

I. Olawoyin 32'

A. Gaich 25'

Garry Rodrigues 90+9'

R. Bajić 56'

4/28/2024

League #203 · Round 34Çaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Rizespor41%

×Draw23%

Ankaragücü36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RizesporExpected goals in this matchAnkaragücü

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.63

Rizespor

1.76

Ankaragücü

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.42

creates per match

1.00

2.25

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Rizespor

1.42

Ankaragücü

1.00

allows per match

Rizespor

2.25

Ankaragücü

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rizespor+0.00on par

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Ankaragücü →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw

64%

Rizespor or Ankaragücü

77%

Draw or Ankaragücü

59%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+

22%

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals

83%

Rizespor 2+ goals

52%

Rizespor 3+ goals

26%

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

80%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

48%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)

53%

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

Ankaragücü away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 1.42 + Ankaragücü defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.76

Ankaragücü attack 1.00 + Rizespor defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rizespor scores more

41%

level

23%

Ankaragücü scores more

36%

Rizespor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rizespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

I. Olawoyin

Rizespor · M

8.2

Match Events

25'

A. Gaich↳ I. Olawoyin

30'

Ali Sowe

32'

I. Olawoyin↳ J. Shelvey

45'

Christian Bassogog

46'

R. Bajić← A. Sowe

46'

T. Chatzigiovanis← R. Cephas

56'

R. Bajić↳ E. Bekiroğlu

62'

Pedrinho← T. Ciğerci

64'

Mert Çetin

69'

M. Sarıkaya← D. Varešanović

75'

M. Minchev← A. Gaich

75'

T. Çetin← G. Akkan

75'

Gustavo Sauer← D. Akintola

85'

Emirhan Topçu

85'

Efkan Bekiroğlu

87'

Garry Rodrigues← A. Flips

90+6'

90+3'

90+10'

90+2'

90+9'

Garry Rodrigues↳ U. Radaković

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RizesporAnkaragücü

Overview

31%Possession69%

12Total Shots21

0.97Expected Goals (xG)1.55

2Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots21

3On Target8

5Off Target10

4Blocked3

7Inside Box10

5Outside Box11

Passing

31%Possession69%

256Total Passes591

178Accurate Passes514

70%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls11

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2

League #203: Rizespor 2–2 Ankaragücü

Rizespor and Ankaragücü drew 2-2 in League #203 on April 28, 2024.

Goals: A. Gaich (25'), I. Olawoyin (32'), R. Bajić (56'), Garry Rodrigues (90+9').

Ankaragücü controlled possession (69%) and registered 21 shots to 12.

The match was played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Rize.

Rizespor vs Ankaragücü — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: Rizespor 2–2 Ankaragücü