Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ankaragücü vs Rizespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Ankaragücü
Ankaragücü
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rizespor
Rizespor
O. Moruțan 90+11' (pen)
T. Ciğerci 90+7' (pen)
A. Güneren 57'
M. Pala 83'
1/16/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundEryaman Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ankaragücü61%
×Draw20%
Rizespor18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ankaragücü
2.12
Rizespor
1.06

Ankaragücü creates 100% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ankaragücü
2.39
Rizespor
1.23

allows per match

Ankaragücü
0.89
Rizespor
1.85

finishing

Ankaragücü+0.00on par
Rizespor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaragücü ↓

Rizespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ankaragücü or draw
82%
Ankaragücü or Rizespor
80%
Draw or Rizespor
39%

Winning margin

Ankaragücü wins by 2+
38%
Rizespor wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ankaragücü 1+ goals
88%
Ankaragücü 2+ goals
62%
Ankaragücü 3+ goals
35%
Rizespor 1+ goals
65%
Rizespor 2+ goals
29%
Rizespor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)
77%
Rizespor (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaragücü at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Rizespor away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaragücü attack 2.39 + Rizespor defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.12

Rizespor attack 1.23 + Ankaragücü defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ankaragücü scores more
61%
level
20%
Rizespor scores more
18%

Ankaragücü at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ankaragücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
B. Keser← A. Zeqiri
57'
A. Güneren
60'
J. Shelvey← D. Varešanović
61'
I. Olawoyin← Óscar Pinchi
61'
T. Şahin← E. Korkmaz
70'
A. Gaich← M. Minchev
74'
A. Çankaya← S. Kitsiou
75'
T. Ciğerci← E. Bekiroğlu
81'
U. Radaković← M. Hanousek
81'
T. Chatzigiovanis← R. Cephas
83'
M. Pala↳ J. Shelvey
90+10'
Taha Sahin
90+7'
T. CiğerciPenalty
90+11'
O. MoruțanPenalty

Statistics

AnkaragücüRizespor
Overview
2Corners4

Match Recap: Ankaragücü vs Rizespor

Ankaragücü beat Rizespor 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on January 16, 2024.

Goals: A. Güneren (57'), M. Pala (83'), T. Ciğerci (90+7' pen), O. Moruțan (90+11' pen).

The match was played at Eryaman Stadyumu in Ankara.